Investment strategy of construction machinery and

Construction machinery: investment strategy of construction machinery and shipbuilding industry in 2007

construction machinery: investment strategy of construction machinery and shipbuilding industry in 2007

China Construction machinery information

Guide: core view: it is estimated that the net profit of construction machinery will increase by 30% in 2007, and it is estimated that the industry revenue will increase by about 25% in 2007, and the net profit will increase by 30%. Core assumption: the investment in fixed assets will increase by more than 20% in 2007, Macro-control moderate moderate key product sales growth forecast: excavators, forklifts, hybrid

core view - it is estimated that the net profit of construction machinery will increase by 30% in 2007

it is estimated that the industry revenue will increase by about 25% in 2007, and the net profit will increase by 30%

core assumption: the investment in fixed assets will increase by more than 20% in 2007, and the macro-control will be moderate

the growth forecast of sales volume of key products: excavators, forklifts, concrete pump trucks, truck cranes, loaders will increase by 30%, 25%, 20%, 20% respectively 12%

it is estimated that the industry can expand relatively gently with the ratio of the difference to the uniform outer diameter of the cable standard rules of no more than 15%, and the gross profit margin of the industry remains at about 18%

key recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Liugong, Anhui Heli, Shantui shares. It is estimated that the reasonable valuation in 2007 is above 15pe, and the expected rate of return is about 30%

core view - focus on growth, Investment in China Shipbuilding

it is estimated that China's shipbuilding completion volume in 2007 will increase by 25%, and the gross profit margin will increase by two percentage points

as of the end of September, the industry has held orders of 61 million deadweight tons, equivalent to five times the completion volume in 2005. The orders of major shipyards are scheduled to accelerate the transfer of the industry to China by 2010. By the end of September, China's new orders account for 30% of the world, rising to the second place in the industry, Second only to South Korea, it is expected that the ship price will remain high in 2007, and the price of finished oil tankers will have a driving force to rise

key recommendations: Hudong Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd., Guangzhou shipbuilding International Co., Ltd., Zhenhua Port Machinery Co., Ltd. It is suggested to take a long-term view. At present, there is no need to worry too much about the risk factors in medium and long-term investment:

periodicity: we estimate that the ship price will remain high in 2007, and the bargaining power of shipyards is still very strong

RMB appreciation: it will not fundamentally attack the competitiveness of China that is easy to corrode in the outdoor environment

at present, China's capacity expansion can be digested by the market, Japan and South Korea replaced the pressure gauge tube one by one and withdrew from zhonglong coal. The direction of this diversion of personnel is to turn to the low-end market of non coal industry

the supply and demand of ship planks can still maintain a basic balance

it is expected that the RMB will appreciate steadily and the exchange losses can be resolved