Investment strategy analysis of the hottest constr

The construction machinery market has stabilized investment strategy analysis

generally speaking, the prosperity of the machinery industry in July is still low, and almost all survey objects reflect that they have not seen an upward trend in downstream demand at present. Machine tool enterprises report that the number of orders has declined compared with last year, and it is unlikely to deteriorate further; Another reason for the construction machinery enterprises to reflect the internal test is that the monthly sales volume of the improved process control is basically in line with expectations, and there may be a slight improvement in the case of a low base year on year. In general, the shrinkage characteristics of various plastics are divided into four groups. The boom of the machinery industry in July is still low, and almost all survey objects reflect that they have not seen an upward trend in downstream demand at present. Machine tool enterprises report that the number of orders has declined compared with last year, and it is unlikely to deteriorate further; Construction machinery enterprises reported that the sales volume of this month was basically in line with expectations, and there may be a slight improvement in the case of a low base year-on-year. We expect that the sales of excavators nationwide in July will be about 6000 to 6500 units, achieving a single digit year-on-year growth

the market has stabilized in the off-season

as of July 24, only the construction machinery and heavy machinery sector in the 13 sub industries of Bohai machinery industry ranked bottom in the industry with a decline of 3.42% and 1.49% respectively under the pressure of multiple negative conditions such as the decline of the industry boom, weak business performance, lack of event positive incentives and substantive support policies; The railway equipment with continuous favorable policies and the market consensus expectation, as well as the light industrial machinery sector, which has the attribute of artificial substitution and has a large number of small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks, led the industry with an increase of 18.45% and 17.80% respectively

new orders in the machine tool industry still fell year-on-year: some enterprises reported that the decline in orders remained around 20%, down about 50% compared with the peak in 10 and 11 years. Almost all enterprises have reported that the order volume has basically stabilized at this level

construction machinery research enterprises reported that the sales volume in July was in line with expectations: most enterprises reported that the market had stabilized in the off-season, which was basically consistent with previous expectations. Although there may be some improvement in the year-on-year data, manufacturers are not too optimistic that the situation in the second half of the year will not be much better

the negative impact of money shortage may be gradually reflected in the follow-up: excavators can generally have a weak growth of less than 10%, and will fluctuate between flat and small growth in the second half of the year. Some manufacturers began to expect that the demand of the extractive industry would begin to improve slightly. Crane manufacturers expect sales to decline by 10% this month, while concrete machinery manufacturers expect sales to remain flat year-on-year this month. Some enterprises mentioned that they have felt that the loans of local banks for construction machinery are lagging behind, and a bank that cooperates most with the construction machinery industry may not increase its credit to construction machinery. When the financing companies of each enterprise account for a relatively small proportion, it may have an impact on sales

investment strategy of the machinery industry in the second half of the year

transformation is the hottest word for the government and the market at present. In the machinery sector, it is mainly reflected in energy reform, efficiency improvement and emerging industries

under the guidance of policies, enterprises have sought their own development ways under the transformation, which is not only a feast for investment of listed machinery companies, but also a pain of investment. Before the macro has not been effectively improved, energy reform, efficiency improvement, livelihood equipment and emerging industries still deserve attention. At the same time, listed companies with cheap valuations and strategic adjustments are selected from the bottom up to enter emerging industries. For cyclical products dominated by construction machinery, it is necessary to pay close attention to the change trend of real estate new construction expectations, which determines the inflection point

construction machinery: sales are tepid, waiting for the expected rebound of new real estate construction. In June, the sales volume of excavators was 8328 units. From the perspective of the seasonal characteristics of better impact resistance, the magnitude of month on month decline (-28%) was slightly higher than the annual average seasonal characteristics (-24%). According to macro data, infrastructure investment remained high, real estate sales weakened, and new construction strengthened. Our view: the bottom range, waiting for the expected rebound of new real estate construction

the leading indicator of construction machinery sales, infrastructure investment remains high; At the same time, the hourglass of construction machinery investment logic has shifted from infrastructure to real estate. If real estate sales continue to rebound and real estate policy expectations gradually stabilize, new real estate construction will start under the condition of gradual inventory reduction. It is expected to gradually rise rather than fall sharply again. Real estate sales and new construction are expected to turn from negative to positive, which will drive the share price of construction machinery to stabilize and rebound

rail transit: the acceleration of railway investment in the second half of the year is in line with expectations, and it is worth considering where the railway development will go in the future. The restructuring of the Ministry of Railways has kept railway investment at a low level so far this year, which has also suppressed the performance of individual stocks in the whole sector. Nevertheless, all parties have made it clear that the railway fixed asset investment of 650billion yuan (including 520billion yuan of capital construction) set at the beginning of the year will be completed. That is to say, when the fixed asset investment in the first half of the year only accounts for about 30%, the speed increase in the second half of the year is also inevitable, which is within the expected range. Therefore, from the perspective of stock price, there will also be opportunities for a rebound expected to be repaired. After the fall of Liu Zhijun, the previous mode of rapid railway construction will be terminated; At the same time, after the Railway Corporation exists in the form of an enterprise, the industry development will no longer be like the previous government led model, but enter a more market-oriented stage. Whether the investment and construction is more related to the cost of capital and investment income

in terms of the total trading volume and transaction amount of each industry, the mechanical equipment industry ranks first. During the year, the popularity of 345 constituent stocks in the mechanical equipment industry will also be further expanded, with more than 40% landing on the block trading platform, with a cumulative trading volume of 1.319 billion shares and a cumulative turnover of 13.953 billion yuan